Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x244e…e9bb sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$140 (-57%) realized −$210 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$89
sports 45% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-54.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -36.5% -42.6% 12% 12% -35.5%
≤30d 9 -43.6% -48.9% 11% 11% -54.3%
≤90d 9 -43.6% -48.9% 11% 11% -54.3%
all 10 -49.2% -54.0% 10% 10% -74.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.0% 10% -74.0%
10% -58.4% 10% -76.5%
15% -62.5% 10% -78.7%
20% -66.1% 10% -80.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$17 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage227d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 84¢ $30 $72 +$42 (+141%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 32¢ 74¢ $20 $46 +$26 (+130%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Over 21¢ 20¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Over 19¢ 28¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 +$35 +344%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $73 −$73 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $31 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 3¢ $3 10h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 10h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 15h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 20d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? BUY Yes 37¢ $44 227d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? BUY Yes 37¢ $28 227d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.27 · official $143.27 (match) · 22 history records