Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x244f…dcc5 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2
other 39% −$1
crypto 7% +$2
politics 6% $0
culture 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 7% -10.0%
all 32 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage452d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $105 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $42 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $77 −$3 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $34 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $4 $0 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -10%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 10 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 09 $12 −$2 -20%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 06 $8 +$3 +30%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 110m and 120m on opening weekend? Apr 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Apr 03 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 28 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $36 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $37 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $37 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $9 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $24 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $11 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $23 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $34 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $1 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $14 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $12 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.03 (match) · 126 history records