Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2454…82e1 world 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate23%21W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$11
other 25% −$1
politics 24% −$1
sports 12% −$3
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.6% -11.9% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 26 -5.7% -14.7% 27% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 66 -2.5% -11.8% 23% 0% -9.8%
all 90 -2.0% -11.3% 23% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses21 / 69
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage266d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 73¢ 72¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 58¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $133 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $182 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $103 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $151 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $45 −$5 -10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $144 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $68 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $124 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $76 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $176 −$2 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $295 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $74 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $161 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $6 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $75 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $16 −$2 -14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $242 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $78 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $80 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $358 −$2 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $91 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $4 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $98 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 27 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 -6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $255 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $92 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $150 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $273 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $79 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 26m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $62 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $62 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $62 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $62 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $63 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $13 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $51 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $10 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $54 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $24 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $65 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $66 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $72 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $72 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $53 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $66 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.18 · official $0.00 · 482 history records