Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2455…7559 sports 94 markets active 14h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-3%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%41W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$264
7 days−$106
14 days−$106
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$95
crypto 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -9.2% -17.8% 43% 38% -14.0%
≤30d 94 -9.1% -17.8% 44% 37% -14.0%
≤90d 94 -9.1% -17.8% 44% 37% -14.0%
all 94 -9.1% -17.8% 44% 37% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 37% -14.0%
10% -25.6% 33% -22.2%
15% -32.8% 29% -29.7%
20% -39.4% 19% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses41 / 53
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage14d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $85 −$15 -17%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $56 −$29 -53%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$6 +37%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 −$17 -89%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$20 -77%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 −$1 -8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$4 -26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $51 −$33 -65%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $66 −$52 -78%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +103%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $86 −$14 -16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $71 −$42 -59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$12 -59%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$6 -61%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$22 -71%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $27 −$23 -83%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$22 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $121 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $61 +$34 +56%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$12 +58%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$3 -33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 +$27 +53%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$14 -68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$13 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 −$9 -44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27 +$8 +30%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$16 +103%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$19 +75%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $30 +$1 +5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$3 -66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$3 -51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 −$5 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $16 14h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 85¢ $21 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $2 15h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 15h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $6 15h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 33¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 67¢ $9 17h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 69¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 62¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 30¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 38¢ $27 17h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 71¢ $15 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $11 18h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 30¢ $10 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $8 19h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 56¢ $20 19h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $24 23h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 34¢ $24 23h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $15 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $19 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 24h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 57¢ $20 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $19 24h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 35¢ $51 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $14 35h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $38 35h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 29¢ $29 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 281 history records