Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
24 0x2458…ffeb sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,050 (+7%) realized +$3,050 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%75W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$7,875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$24
14 days+$47
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 38% +$41
other 32% +$2,986
crypto 16% +$17
sports 11% −$11
tech 1% +$6
politics 1% $0
world 1% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 25 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 53 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 82 -1.9% -11.3% 91% 5% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -2.3%
10% -19.8% 2% -11.6%
15% -27.5% 2% -20.2%
20% -34.6% 1% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$4 · ×9.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×103.6 per $1 lost it wins $103.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$7,875
Realized+$3,050
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses75 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)82 / 97
History coverage198d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,000 $5,003 +$3 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $474 $479 +$5 (+1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $478 $476 −$2 (-0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $331 $331 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $311 $311 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 100¢ 99¢ $292 $289 −$3 (-1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $40? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $249 $248 −$1 (-0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $110? No 100¢ 100¢ $232 $231 −$1 (-0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $130? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 15 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $143 $143 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $100? No 100¢ 98¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $140? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $199 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,001 +$11 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $3,400 +$3 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th Jun 14 $94 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 14 $2,343 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 14 $148 +$1 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $40? Jun 14 $164 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of Jun 14 $175 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $30? Jun 14 $238 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $50? Jun 14 $900 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 14 $2,368 +$2 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $1,535 +$14 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $937 +$6 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $2,200 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $185? Jun 02 $248 +$14 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 30 $5,001 +$14 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 30 $250 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 30 $8,000 +$8 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $120? May 29 $162 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the May 29 $89 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 19 $230 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $250 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $246 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 07 $250 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th May 04 $243 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 28 $200 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 13 above $50? Apr 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 13 above $150? Apr 19 $88 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 13 above $160? Apr 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $40? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $160? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $150? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $140? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $130? Apr 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $50? Apr 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $60? Apr 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $70? Apr 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $120? Apr 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 10 $240 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $140 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $120 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 28 $90 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5,000 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $143 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $40? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $100? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $110? BUY No 100¢ $232 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 100¢ $310 32h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 33h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,012 43h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,404 46h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 100¢ $98 2d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,400 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,001 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $474 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $330 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $130? BUY No 100¢ $149 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $140? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $40? BUY Yes 100¢ $149 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $292 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $65 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $331 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $478 2d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $311 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? SELL No 100¢ $493 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? SELL No 100¢ $159 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,875.24 · official $7,875.24 (match) · 226 history records