Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
24 0x245d…3b90 sports 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$665 (+14%) realized +$665 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%86W / 104L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$91
14 days+$191
30 days+$604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$659
crypto 3% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -21.1% -28.6% 22% 18% -26.5%
≤30d 190 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 37% +2.0%
≤90d 190 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 37% +2.0%
all 190 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 37% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 37% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 27% -7.8%
15% -25.6% 21% -16.7%
20% -32.9% 14% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$665
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses86 / 104
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions1
Markets (closed)190 / 191
History coverage30d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage Mentality Monster 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -82%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +150%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +64%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$3 -30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$7 -62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$14 -57%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$7 +226%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $8 −$7 -89%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$7 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$10 +188%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner SELL Walczaki 93¢ $9 39m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 97¢ $10 40m
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 0¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 0¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 0¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 0¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 0¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 0¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 0¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 0¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL D family 100¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 85¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 85¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 85¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 85¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 85¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 81¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 81¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 81¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL D family 43¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL D family 43¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL D family 43¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL D family 43¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL D family 43¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL D family 28¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 10¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 10¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 10¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL D family 4¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL D family 15¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 1341 history records