Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x245e…3ced
sports · 55 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$770 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$877 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$269
Realized+$877
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses27 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage154d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 3 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,480
7 days−$1,325
14 days−$1,325
30 days−$1,325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 55¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $58 $55 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $167 +$40 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $511 +$45 +9%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -84%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $29 −$2 -7%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $17 −$5 -31%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $57 −$23 -41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 −$157 -52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $27 +$50 +188%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $39 −$13 -32%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $125 +$123 +99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $189 +$101 +54%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $141 −$16 -12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $93 −$30 -32%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -85%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $262 +$284 +108%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$4 -36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $191 +$85 +45%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $140 +$70 +50%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-01-12? Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $131 +$78 +60%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $157 −$157 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $561 −$412 -73%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $130 −$130 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $301 −$301 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $653 −$653 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $622 −$622 -100%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $9 +$8 +86%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $140 +$20 +14%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $9 +$14 +152%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $89 +$102 +114%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $9 +$20 +216%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $140 −$26 -18%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $162 +$112 +69%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $307 +$123 +40%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 07 $100 −$61 -62%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Mar 01 $204 +$138 +68%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Mar 01 $468 −$233 -50%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $110 +$132 +120%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Feb 27 $100 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $516 +$438 +85%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Feb 27 $323 +$299 +93%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Feb 22 $385 +$331 +86%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Feb 22 $265 +$320 +121%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 22 $43 +$2 +5%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $161 +$786 +488%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 16 $57 −$24 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 16 $22 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% −$36
other 14% +$994
crypto 2% −$22
world 1% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $100 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 69¢ $34 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 69¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 70¢ $171 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $167 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $359 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $258 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 46¢ $27 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 42¢ $12 2h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals SELL Yes 32¢ $34 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 48¢ $29 2h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $38 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 44¢ $196 2h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $19 4h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $17 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $253 4h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 34¢ $27 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $26 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $27 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $12 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $170 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $6 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $110 16h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $95 17h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $95 17h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $100 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +4.9% -5.1% 46% 43% -30.1%
≤30d 37 +4.9% -5.1% 46% 43% -30.1%
≤90d 37 +4.9% -5.1% 46% 43% -30.1%
all 51 +23.9% +12.1% 53% 49% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.1% 49% -0.3%
10% +1.3% 45% -9.9%
15% -8.4% 43% -18.6%
20% -17.4% 39% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.82 · official $268.82 (match) · 166 history records