Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2461…f240 sports 309 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,162 (-3%) realized −$3,045 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%163W / 141L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day67.9pace
Fees−$802est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,237
7 days−$837
14 days−$357
30 days−$723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$7,452
sports 45% −$7,330
politics 1% +$157
tech 1% −$507
finance 1% −$985
world 1% −$535
crypto 1% −$515
culture 0% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -6.8% -15.7% 61% 41% -13.0%
≤30d 240 -16.0% -24.0% 52% 35% -10.5%
≤90d 304 -13.8% -22.0% 54% 36% -11.3%
all 304 -13.8% -22.0% 54% 36% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 36% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 30% -19.8%
15% -36.3% 26% -27.5%
20% -42.5% 23% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$300 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$420
Realized−$3,045
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses163 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$802
Open positions5
Markets (closed)304 / 309
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$368
Trades / day67.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 23¢ 47¢ $94 $188 +$94 (+101%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $155 $145 −$10 (-7%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $78 $87 +$9 (+12%)
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? No 20¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
ITF Asuncion: Camila Romero vs Justina Gonzalez Daniele Justina Gonzalez Daniele 52¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $26 +$47 +183%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $500 −$489 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $244 +$255 +105%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $83 −$83 -100%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 24 $562 −$548 -97%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $794 −$782 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios Jun 24 $571 −$58 -10%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Jun 24 $524 +$34 +6%
ITF Porto: Eliakim Coulibaly vs John Echeverria Jun 24 $340 +$31 +9%
ITF Brussels: Kai Wehnelt vs Samuele Pieri Jun 24 $903 +$151 +17%
ITF Zagreb: Matic Dimic vs Drazen Petrovic Jun 24 $210 +$90 +43%
Harry Kane: 2+ shots Jun 23 $1,132 +$123 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $155 −$155 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $530 −$530 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $259 −$259 -100%
Rafael Leão: 1+ shots Jun 23 $97 +$21 +22%
João Félix: 1+ shots Jun 23 $33 +$2 +7%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $160 −$160 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $568 +$432 +76%
João Félix: 1+ goals Jun 23 $94 −$92 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $89 −$88 -98%
ITF Bakio: Pablo Roche Alcaya vs Emile Hudd Jun 23 $674 +$146 +22%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $443 +$82 +18%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $508 +$292 +58%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $390 +$210 +54%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $212 +$348 +165%
Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots Jun 22 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $206 −$60 -29%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots Jun 22 $42 +$4 +9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $318 +$195 +61%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $247 −$75 -30%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots Jun 21 $63 +$7 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $646 −$646 -100%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $754 −$754 -100%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $633 +$492 +78%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $320 +$334 +104%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $625 −$625 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots Jun 21 $121 +$12 +10%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots Jun 21 $70 +$23 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $670 +$330 +49%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $740 −$740 -100%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 20 $923 +$669 +72%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $484 −$280 -58%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 +$67 +203%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $363 +$1,172 +323%
Raphinha: 1+ shots Jun 20 $36 +$3 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $425 −$425 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 23¢ $96 16m
ITF Asuncion: Camila Romero vs Justina Gonzalez Daniele BUY Justina Gonzalez Daniele 47¢ $4 1h
ITF Asuncion: Camila Romero vs Justina Gonzalez Daniele BUY Justina Gonzalez Daniele 52¢ $90 1h
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 99¢ $73 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 10¢ $7 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 10¢ $0 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 10¢ $9 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 10¢ $0 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 10¢ $0 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 10¢ $0 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 10¢ $1 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 10¢ $0 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 25¢ $94 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 25¢ $0 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 25¢ $0 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 25¢ $2 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 25¢ $4 1h
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 35¢ $26 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 47¢ $3 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 47¢ $62 3h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $225 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $225 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 20h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $39 20h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $27 20h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 20h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $7 20h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $8 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.77 · official $419.77 (match) · 3500 history records