Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2463…e21b politics 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$64,619 (+97%) realized +$64,630 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,326per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$723
7 days−$954
14 days−$954
30 days−$954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% +$64,813
other 9% −$857
sports 1% +$139
crypto 0% −$53
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -27.6% -34.5% 42% 26% -20.9%
≤30d 19 -27.6% -34.5% 42% 26% -20.9%
≤90d 19 -27.6% -34.5% 42% 26% -20.9%
all 48 -11.4% -19.8% 40% 31% +80.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 31% +80.2%
10% -27.5% 31% +62.9%
15% -34.5% 23% +47.2%
20% -40.9% 19% +32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +98% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -57% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,514 vs −$94 · ×37.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×24.53 per $1 lost it wins $24.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$529
Realized+$64,630
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage610d
Avg bet$1,326
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $530 $529 −$1 (-0%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $951 +$62 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,014 −$699 -69%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$28 +28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$22 +2%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $116 −$113 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$39 +65%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $312 +$90 +29%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $212 −$210 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$164 -33%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$243 +238%
Will Trump win Iowa by 12+ points? Jan 14 $650 +$4,350 +669%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 12 $3,888 +$10,250 +264%
Will Trump win 7 swing states? Nov 12 $6,016 +$19,488 +324%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Nov 06 $1,140 +$260 +23%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $46,677 +$31,375 +67%
Trump wins a solid blue state? Nov 04 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Trump say "hell" 10 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1 Nov 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Nevada rally on Oct 31? Nov 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin"during New Mexico rally on October Nov 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Kamala" 30 or more times during the Joe Rogan podca Oct 31 $16 −$13 -79%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29? Oct 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" 20 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Rapist" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 5 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Oct 3 Oct 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "tax" 20 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Oct 30 Oct 31 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Trump say "border" 25 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Tren de Aragua" during Pennsylvania rally on October 2 Oct 31 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump say "Rogan" during Wisconsin rally on Oct 30? Oct 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Wisconsin rally on Oct 30? Oct 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 5 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oc Oct 31 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Wisconsin rally on Oct 30? Oct 31 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during Wisconsin rally on Oct 30 Oct 31 $52 +$52 +100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct Oct 30 $75 +$42 +56%
Will Trump say "Nazi" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29? Oct 30 $200 +$200 +100%
Will Trump say "Elon" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 29 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Trump say "garbage can" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 29 $200 +$80 +40%
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Georgia rally on Octobe Oct 29 $500 +$168 +34%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31? Oct 28 $5 −$1 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 31m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 31m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $30 51m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $278 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 85¢ $12 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $940 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $29 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 59¢ $129 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $102 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 48¢ $95 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 52¢ $385 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $912 28h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 29h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $31 29h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 31h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 37h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $42 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 39h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.94 · official $528.94 (match) · 232 history records