Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
24 0x2463…f5b5 sports 1178 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,615 (-11%) realized −$2,336 · open −$279
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%610W / 554L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$710
other 29% +$536
crypto 0% −$42
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.9% -10.3% 64% 57% +4.1%
≤30d 37 -46.3% -51.4% 32% 30% -31.2%
≤90d 849 -1.2% -10.6% 52% 50% -4.9%
all 1164 -3.0% -12.2% 52% 51% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 51% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 50% -18.0%
15% -28.3% 47% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 37% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$1,625
Realized−$2,336
Unrealized−$279
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses610 / 554
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1164 / 1178
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 66¢ $800 $655 −$145 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $172 $186 +$15 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $217 $166 −$51 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $144 $131 −$13 (-9%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Aligned FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 62¢ 87¢ $62 $87 +$25 (+41%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $130 $84 −$46 (-35%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $66 −$19 (-22%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $64 $42 −$21 (-33%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $26 −$2 (-5%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $23 $26 +$3 (+12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $16 −$2 (-8%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$11 +57%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 +$14 +38%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $34 +$16 +46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $19 +$1 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $16 +$10 +61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $18 −$17 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $9 −$5 -55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 +$12 +70%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $14 +$11 +82%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $32 +$9 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5 May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: O/U 1.5 May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 May 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
NEOM SC vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 May 21 $10 +$10 +104%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $12 +$8 +72%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
CD Cobresal vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 1.5 May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $7 −$7 -100%
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 0.5 May 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $12 −$12 -100%
CD Leganés vs. SD Huesca: O/U 0.5 May 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to Score May 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10? May 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Elche CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 May 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $11 +$9 +85%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 May 18 $20 −$13 -62%
EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5 May 18 $12 +$8 +70%
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5 May 18 $13 +$7 +52%
Antalyaspor vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 0.5 May 18 $10 +$5 +52%
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5 May 17 $13 +$7 +52%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5 May 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $7 +$6 +82%
Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Falkirk FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $4 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $6 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $19 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 57¢ $20 3h
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $11 10h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 70¢ $3 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 70¢ $18 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $12 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $4 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $2 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $2 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $34 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 24h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $11 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $18 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,624.60 · official $1,624.75 (match) · 3500 history records