Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:47:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x2467…ecce
weather · 198 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$343 -65%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$342 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$342
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses19 / 173
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)192 / 198
History coverage67d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 6 History 192 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-69%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 41¢ 29¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +43%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $2 +$4 +187%
Curaçao vs. Aruba: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +81%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -49%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$2 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $16 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $2 +$1 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 19 $2 +$1 +53%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $1 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $1 $0 +44%
Viking FK vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 3.5 May 01 $1 −$1 -59%
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Apr 30 $1 $0 -26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $9 −$5 -62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $4 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 29? Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 28? Apr 28 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 27 Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ap Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on April 27? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on April 27? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 27? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 27? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 27? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on April Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 27? Apr 27 $3 +$2 +82%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 27? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 25? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 26? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Crashers vs QUINTESSÊNCIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 47% −$210
other 17% −$45
world 15% −$12
weather 10% −$42
finance 5% −$20
politics 4% −$17
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 7h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 20h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 36h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-75.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -37.8% -43.7% 50% 25% -36.1%
≤30d 13 +7.7% -2.6% 69% 46% +0.2%
≤90d 192 -73.1% -75.6% 10% 6% -70.5%
all 192 -73.1% -75.6% 10% 6% -70.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.6% 6% -70.5%
10% -78.0% 6% -73.4%
15% -80.1% 5% -75.9%
20% -82.0% 3% -78.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.18 · official $10.18 (match) · 936 history records