Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
24 0x246b…1196 other 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,549 (+6%) realized +$11,662 · open +$1,887
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate80%174W / 43L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$952per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$27,753now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13,242
7 days+$13,242
14 days+$13,242
30 days+$13,574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$12,834
other 34% −$9,678
politics 8% +$4,127
economics 4% +$532
sports 3% +$961
finance 1% +$337
crypto 1% +$2,197
tech 1% +$24
culture 1% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +72.6% +56.2% 100% 100% +56.2%
≤30d 18 +3.6% -6.2% 72% 44% +18.5%
≤90d 60 +1.3% -8.3% 75% 42% +3.3%
all 217 +3.0% -6.8% 80% 37% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 37% -4.7%
10% -15.7% 18% -13.8%
15% -23.9% 12% -22.2%
20% -31.3% 6% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,031) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$793 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$27,753
Realized+$11,662
Unrealized+$1,887
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses174 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)217 / 219
History coverage298d
Avg bet$952
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 49¢ 52¢ $20,806 $22,363 +$1,557 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 72¢ 77¢ $5,060 $5,390 +$330 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $18,239 +$13,242 +73%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $3,154 −$3,149 -100%
Chirayu Rana divorced? Jun 09 $113 −$102 -91%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $83 +$13 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $730 +$267 +37%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $513 +$76 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $2,190 −$2,190 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $3,983 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,814 +$2,169 +120%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? May 31 $184 +$3 +1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2,279 +$635 +28%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? May 28 $883 +$62 +7%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 28 $316 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $5,701 +$2,150 +38%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 26 $1,491 +$64 +4%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 25 $740 +$33 +4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 24 $2,176 +$301 +14%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 21 $435 +$55 +13%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $874 +$126 +14%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 19 $440 +$44 +10%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 19 $1,317 −$1,298 -99%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,237 +$202 +16%
Will Rachel Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg May 13 $1,346 +$55 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $3,519 +$469 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 12 $670 +$1 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election May 06 $289 +$1,222 +423%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 04 $1,532 +$218 +14%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 03 $944 −$913 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30? May 01 $1,282 +$277 +22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $2,180 +$841 +39%
James Comey arrested by May 15? Apr 30 $3,310 +$1,081 +33%
James Comey arrested by April 30? Apr 29 $1,442 +$334 +23%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $2,676 +$93 +4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 29 $1,901 +$1,085 +57%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $1,125 +$119 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 29 $1,811 +$185 +10%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Apr 28 $384 −$187 -49%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 27 $2,211 −$2,211 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 27 $1,733 −$1,733 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 26 $1,841 −$1,841 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 26 $1,748 +$262 +15%
Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026? Apr 15 $124 +$8 +6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 07 $341 +$26 +8%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 1, 2026? Apr 07 $2,133 +$70 +3%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 07 $57 +$35 +61%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 5, 2026? Apr 06 $266 −$208 -78%
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Apr 05 $168 +$8 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $1,806 +$394 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $10,400 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $2,840 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $18,146 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $89 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $2 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $676 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $1,152 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $4,986 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $199 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $10 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $2,220 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $11,040 2d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL No $5 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $65 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $57 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $17 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $5 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $25 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $10 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $6 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 19¢ $8 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 19¢ $2 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 23¢ $115 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 23¢ $115 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 26¢ $260 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 28¢ $125 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 28¢ $15 14d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 31¢ $85 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $900 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,753.23 · official $27,718.24 (match) · 2505 history records