Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
24 0x246d…c74d sports 276 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,889 (-5%) realized −$8,955 · open +$66
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%139W / 136L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$670per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$701est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$105
14 days−$14,823
30 days−$13,605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$6,636
world 23% −$15,560
other 2% +$476
tech 1% −$1,000
culture 0% +$152
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +21.8% +10.2% 50% 50% +7.1%
≤30d 44 +2.4% -7.4% 55% 55% -27.7%
≤90d 162 -11.6% -20.1% 49% 48% -16.8%
all 275 -9.1% -17.7% 51% 49% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 49% -14.1%
10% -25.6% 48% -22.3%
15% -32.8% 44% -29.8%
20% -39.4% 37% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$365 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized−$8,955
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses139 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$701
Open positions1
Markets (closed)275 / 276
History coverage149d
Avg bet$670
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $335 $401 +$66 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $263 +$170 +64%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $308 −$65 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $18,494 −$18,494 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5,639 +$2,976 +53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $759 +$1,310 +172%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $255 −$250 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $475 −$470 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $10,000 −$401 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $2,317 +$1,097 +47%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $399 −$395 -99%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5) Jun 03 $499 −$494 -99%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $502 −$496 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $400 −$396 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $252 −$248 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11,749 +$2,238 +19%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $457 +$204 +45%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $232 +$225 +97%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $159 +$73 +46%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5) May 29 $469 −$465 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $248 +$221 +89%
Victoria Mboko vs. Katerina Siniakova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 28 $99 +$149 +151%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $698 −$691 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $641 +$156 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $466 +$175 +38%
Nishesh Basavareddy vs. Alex Michelsen: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 27 $303 +$163 +54%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina May 27 $353 −$251 -71%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Royer (+2.5) May 27 $177 −$175 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 May 26 $180 −$178 -99%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Daniel Altmaier: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 26 $253 +$132 +52%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 26 $549 −$542 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula May 26 $1,293 −$1,285 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova May 26 $2,015 +$649 +32%
Alexander Bublik vs. Jan-Lennard Struff: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 26 $260 +$156 +60%
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5) May 26 $145 +$121 +83%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 26 $239 +$379 +158%
Iva Jovic vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) May 25 $203 +$185 +91%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $281 −$277 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Aguilar vs Shelton May 25 $334 +$146 +44%
Hijikata vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 25 $101 +$50 +50%
Set Handicap: Paul (-2.5) vs Hijikata (+2.5) May 25 $505 −$500 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex Michelsen May 25 $499 +$296 +59%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) May 25 $4,025 +$1,038 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $75 +$257 +344%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Bejlek vs Sloane Stephens May 24 $130 −$128 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 24 $262 +$170 +65%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $1,265 −$1,250 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $120 +$412 +344%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $605 −$597 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $508 +$512 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $433 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $263 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $243 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $308 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $343 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $16,000 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,615 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $759 9d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 32¢ $255 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $2,494 10d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 61¢ $475 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $4,620 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9,599 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,019 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3,414 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Berrettini 63¢ $399 20d
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5) BUY Auger-Aliassime 65¢ $499 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $10,000 20d
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Over 61¢ $502 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 66¢ $400 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 49¢ $252 22d
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 69¢ $457 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 50¢ $232 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 54¢ $232 23d
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5) BUY Jodar 69¢ $469 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 SELL Under 100¢ $469 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 52¢ $248 25d
Victoria Mboko vs. Katerina Siniakova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $248 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 65¢ $397 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 65¢ $301 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.54 · official $400.54 (match) · 600 history records