Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x2474…ec29
weather · 769 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$505 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$497 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52
Realized−$497
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses275 / 481
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions13
Markets (closed)756 / 769
History coverage79d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 13 History 756 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$25
14 days−$140
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 61¢ 95¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? No 52¢ 51¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? No 50¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 46¢ 68¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+47%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 40¢ 80¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+101%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 70¢ 81¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 63¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 19¢ 46¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+145%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 29¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 28¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 36¢ 5¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? No 54¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? No 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Baltimore Orioles 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 23? No 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 25? No 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Texas Rangers 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-04-25? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? No 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 26? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? No 56¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$6 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$8 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$5 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$4 +104%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$6 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 −$10 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$8 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$3 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$10 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $11 +$9 +85%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $3 +$3 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$7 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$5 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 +$14 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 +$11 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$12 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 +$3 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 36% −$144
crypto 26% −$152
sports 23% −$67
other 6% −$73
world 6% −$33
politics 2% −$16
tech 1% −$12
economics 1% −$4
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 54¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 54¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL No 42¢ $4 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 36¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 54¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 57¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 52¢ $2 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 57¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 52¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 52¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 19¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 49¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 50¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 51¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 50¢ $5 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 51¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 50¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 28¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 28¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 28¢ $4 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 14¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 50¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -5.6% -14.6% 39% 38% -12.5%
≤30d 237 -11.4% -19.8% 39% 37% -19.4%
≤90d 756 -9.5% -18.1% 36% 31% -18.5%
all 756 -9.5% -18.1% 36% 31% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 31% -18.5%
10% -25.9% 24% -26.3%
15% -33.1% 23% -33.4%
20% -39.6% 19% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.58 · official $51.58 (match) · 2461 history records