Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
24 0x247f…865f other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$300 (+8%) realized +$87 · open +$213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$796
14 days+$696
30 days+$696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$295
sports 35% +$499
crypto 14% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +40.4% +27.0% 70% 70% +13.8%
≤30d 11 +27.6% +15.5% 64% 64% +10.3%
≤90d 11 +27.6% +15.5% 64% 64% +10.3%
all 11 +27.6% +15.5% 64% 64% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.5% 64% +10.3%
10% +4.4% 64% -0.3%
15% -5.7% 55% -9.9%
20% -14.9% 36% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$166 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$613
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$213
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage8d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 28¢ 62¢ $200 $439 +$239 (+120%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $200 $174 −$26 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $558 +$448 +80%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 −$500 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $506 +$116 +23%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $204 −$57 -28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$196 +65%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 +$108 +35%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 +$240 +233%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$107 +53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$145 +48%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 5m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 21m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,005 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $254 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $97 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 74¢ $622 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 32h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $147 44h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 44h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $412 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $342 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $309 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $613.36 · official $613.36 (match) · 25 history records