Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2482…67b1 culture 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$641 (+5%) realized +$597 · open +$44
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate40%68W / 101L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$125
14 days+$301
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 61% +$965
other 16% −$566
finance 11% +$171
world 10% +$13
sports 1% +$21
crypto 1% +$19
politics 0% −$5
weather 0% −$18
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -23.5% -30.8% 22% 11% +3.8%
≤30d 33 -23.6% -30.9% 36% 21% -7.4%
≤90d 152 -6.3% -15.2% 41% 28% -5.8%
all 169 -10.0% -18.6% 40% 28% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 28% -6.4%
10% -26.4% 19% -15.3%
15% -33.5% 14% -23.5%
20% -40.0% 10% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$18 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$1,245
Realized+$597
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses68 / 101
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)169 / 186
History coverage107d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $161 $184 +$24 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $169 $138 −$32 (-19%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 66¢ $94 $133 +$39 (+41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $106 $128 +$22 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $91 $118 +$26 (+29%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 28¢ 50¢ $56 $101 +$45 (+80%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $111 $80 −$31 (-28%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $66 −$18 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $53 $56 +$4 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $41 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $46 $36 −$9 (-21%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $39 $28 −$10 (-27%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $16 −$6 (-25%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes $17 $14 −$2 (-15%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 18 $15 −$2 -11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 16 $35 +$1 +3%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $35 −$9 -26%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $126 +$270 +214%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $519 −$11 -2%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 13 $83 −$77 -93%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -97%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -92%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 09 $257 +$188 +73%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 09 $25 −$7 -28%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 07 $51 −$45 -90%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 06 $62 +$26 +43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $8 −$4 -55%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 05 $166 +$31 +19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $48 +$31 +64%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 02 $1,165 +$50 +4%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -33%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m May 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 31 $336 +$33 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $82 −$82 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m May 29 $26 −$10 -38%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? May 29 $453 +$45 +10%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m May 28 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $32 +$4 +13%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $110 −$55 -50%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $7 −$5 -76%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 26 $601 −$210 -35%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19m? May 24 $24 −$23 -94%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 12.5m? May 22 $73 +$18 +25%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 22 $6 −$2 -40%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 21 $40 +$2 +5%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? May 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 17 $387 +$68 +18%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? May 16 $62 +$5 +8%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 16 $511 +$128 +25%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? May 16 $13 −$12 -94%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m? May 14 $11 −$4 -33%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m? May 14 $6 −$5 -83%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m? May 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m? May 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m? May 14 $9 −$6 -72%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than May 12 $9 +$44 +478%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $46 +$27 +57%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 11 $287 +$43 +15%
Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend? May 11 $245 +$51 +21%
Will "Michael" be the second highest grossing movie of this weekend? May 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $96 52m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL Yes $2 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 7h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 28¢ $15 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 28¢ $10 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 28¢ $3 19h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $17 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 28¢ $28 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $22 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $0 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 38h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 38h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 39h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 39h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 39h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 42h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL Yes 16¢ $9 46h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL Yes 16¢ $2 46h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 36¢ $36 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,245.37 · official $1,251.00 (match) · 1167 history records