Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
24 0x2482…fd45 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized +$76 · open −$86
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate68%19W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$22
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$60
other 22% +$3
culture 13% +$7
politics 4% −$1
economics 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +28.6% +16.4% 68% 68% +3.4%
≤30d 27 +18.9% +7.6% 67% 63% +3.5%
≤90d 28 +18.3% +7.0% 68% 61% +3.4%
all 28 +18.3% +7.0% 68% 61% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.0% 61% +3.4%
10% -3.2% 54% -6.5%
15% -12.6% 43% -15.5%
20% -21.1% 39% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses19 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)28 / 41
History coverage35d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $40 $47 +$7 (+16%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-29%)
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30? No 88¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 31¢ 14¢ $21 $9 −$12 (-56%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-48%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? Yes $16 $5 −$11 (-70%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$17 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $7 +$6 +90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$3 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $8 +$3 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $16 +$10 +62%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +344%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $15 $0 -2%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 24 $1 $0 +27%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? May 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $46 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $5 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $7 8h
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $10 26h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 3d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 3d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $8 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $16 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $4 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $10 5d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $5 6d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $16 6d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 35¢ $1 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 7d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.04 · official $118.04 (match) · 115 history records