Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2484…7780 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$393 (-23%) realized −$393 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%31W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days−$218
14 days−$218
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$161
other 33% −$286
crypto 23% −$18
world 4% +$70
tech 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -17.6% -25.5% 38% 35% -25.6%
≤30d 80 -17.6% -25.5% 38% 35% -25.6%
≤90d 88 -21.5% -29.0% 35% 33% -31.9%
all 88 -21.5% -29.0% 35% 33% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 33% -31.9%
10% -35.8% 30% -38.5%
15% -42.0% 27% -44.4%
20% -47.7% 27% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$393
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses31 / 57
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage32d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $13 +$16 +128%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$16 -80%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 17 $6 −$5 -84%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $11 −$5 -44%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $24 +$15 +62%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$12 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$7 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 43m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 5¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $13 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 22¢ $20 1h
Spread: England (-3.5) SELL England 1¢ $1 1h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 6¢ $6 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 10¢ $6 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 17¢ $11 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $39 4h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) SELL Portugal 16¢ $2 4h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 6h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.62 · official $29.62 (match) · 168 history records