Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:11:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
24 0x2487…56bb crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+3%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$82
other 14% +$4
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -1.5% -10.9% 66% 51% +5.0%
≤30d 35 -1.5% -10.9% 66% 51% +5.0%
≤90d 35 -1.5% -10.9% 66% 51% +5.0%
all 35 -1.5% -10.9% 66% 51% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 51% +5.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 40% -5.0%
15% -27.2% 29% -14.2%
20% -34.3% 17% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.27 per $1 lost it wins $4.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$35 +88%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $44 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $34 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $64 −$11 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $53 +$11 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$2 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $76 +$16 +21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $17 +$4 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +49%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$4 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$3 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -93%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $9 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $39 3m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $36 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $37 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $33 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $33 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $48 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $20 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $44 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $30 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.56 · official $70.78 · 77 history records