Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x248c…26b6 other 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 410d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$276 (+0%) realized +$266 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate53%29W / 26L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$1,430per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$461
7 days+$461
14 days+$461
30 days+$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$455
crypto 2% −$4
politics 2% −$15
economics 0% −$8
world 0% −$3
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
sports 0% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.4% -12.6% 57% 5% -8.8%
≤30d 21 -3.4% -12.6% 57% 5% -8.8%
≤90d 21 -3.4% -12.6% 57% 5% -8.8%
all 55 -6.0% -15.0% 53% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 2% -8.9%
10% -23.1% 2% -17.6%
15% -30.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -37.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$600) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$11 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

410d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses29 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)55 / 64
History coverage410d
Avg bet$1,430
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $272 $282 +$10 (+4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6,304 +$100 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5,866 −$30 -0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $197 $0 -0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13,983 +$222 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5,303 −$100 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8,320 −$20 -0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $600 +$14 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8,202 +$100 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7,502 $0 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $6,482 −$80 -1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $280 +$73 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,522 +$1 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5,901 +$100 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4,034 +$82 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$1 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 $0 -3%
Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $6 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 30 $16 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Dec 09 $35 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 05 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 1? Dec 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on November 28? Nov 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 27? Nov 30 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 19? Nov 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $18 −$4 -20%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on October 30? Nov 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on October 30? Nov 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 26? Oct 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 24? Oct 27 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 20? Oct 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 17 $49 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Sep 29 $47 −$1 -1%
Trump out as President in 2025? Sep 26 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 27 $6 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Aug 21 $51 +$1 +3%
US congress stock trading ban in 2025? Aug 12 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 08 $1,500 −$3 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 08 $1,591 −$15 -1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Aug 07 $1,608 −$17 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $14 23m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $616 23m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $2 24m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $2 26m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $128 26m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $2 27m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $2 27m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $35 28m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $2 29m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $2 31m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $269 31m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $34 31m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $18 31m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $44 31m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $9 31m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $512 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $77 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $26 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $517 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $1,536 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $512 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $256 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $512 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $768 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 64¢ $512 32m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 32m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 33m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 33m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 33m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $409.80 · official $409.80 (match) · 1289 history records