Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x248d…46a2 other 26 markets active 3h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,110 (-13%) realized −$3,107 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$894per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$316
7 days+$316
14 days+$317
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$71
other 37% −$789
sports 17% −$1,921
crypto 2% −$509
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 25% -7.1%
≤30d 8 -20.9% -28.4% 75% 12% -10.9%
≤90d 8 -20.9% -28.4% 75% 12% -10.9%
all 24 -37.2% -43.1% 50% 8% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 8% -22.3%
10% -48.6% 0% -29.8%
15% -53.6% 0% -36.5%
20% -58.1% 0% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,142) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$303 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$1,015
Realized−$3,107
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage168d
Avg bet$894
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 50¢ 57¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,014 +$213 +21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,001 +$32 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $5,007 +$62 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $5,000 +$9 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $509 −$509 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5 Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5 Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 39.5 Jan 13 $22 −$20 -90%
Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5 Jan 13 $5 −$2 -36%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 Jan 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Getafe CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? Jan 09 $1,899 −$1,899 -100%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $1,163 −$1,163 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $1,153 +$11 +1%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $1,142 +$11 +1%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $1,134 +$8 +1%
Will AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? Jan 08 $1,123 +$11 +1%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-01-08? Jan 08 $998 +$125 +12%
Furman Paladins vs. Chattanooga Mocs Jan 08 $993 +$6 +1%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jan 07 $15 −$11 -79%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $11 −$4 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 66¢ $1,227 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 99¢ $1,033 14h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $5,069 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $4,000 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1,007 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,001 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5,000 8d
Kash Patel out by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $12 9d
Kash Patel out by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $6 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $6 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $508 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 25d
Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 162d
Timberwolves vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5 BUY Under 17¢ $5 162d
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 39.5 SELL Over $2 163d
Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5 SELL Over 29¢ $3 163d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 37¢ $2 163d
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 39.5 BUY Over 10¢ $11 163d
Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 163d
Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 163d
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 39.5 BUY Over 11¢ $11 163d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 163d
Will Getafe CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,899 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,014.53 · official $1,014.53 (match) · 52 history records