Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x248f…187c
other · 125 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$19 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open +$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$67
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions96
Markets (closed)29 / 125
History coverage24d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 96 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$21
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Patrick Mahomes be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Yes 1¢ 42¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+3520%)
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 2¢ 29¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+1592%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 51¢ 99¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+94%)
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be 40 or more? Yes 5¢ 26¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+447%)
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-03-08? No 1¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+6119%)
Will John Ratcliffe be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes 12¢ 32¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+167%)
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Green Bay Packers in 2026-27? Yes 2¢ 25¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+1172%)
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Arizona Cardinals in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 13¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+753%)
Will the NYSE choose Solana? Yes 7¢ 37¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+434%)
Will the NYSE choose Solana? No 28¢ 63¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+122%)
Will Brad Stuver win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 42¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+978%)
Will GCR appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes 5¢ 17¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+218%)
Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026? Yes 30¢ 45¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes 0¢ 17¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+5533%)
Will Russell T. Vought be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+68%)
Will Carles Gil win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? No 29¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+101%)
Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026? Yes 30¢ 39¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Alex Cora be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+485%)
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Los Angeles Chargers next? No 69¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Jonathan Sirois win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 41¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+998%)
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-22? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will George Pickens play for Green Bay Packers in 2026-27? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.6% and 1.8%? Yes 2¢ 17¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+822%)
Will Pedro Gallese win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 2¢ 33¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1540%)
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.4%? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump announce John Ratcliffe as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 8? Jun 07 $0 $0 +134%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 -52%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -56%
Will Pau win? Jun 06 $1 $0 -41%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 -88%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Trump praise Ronny Jackson by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump praise Kid Rock by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump praise Mark Rutte by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump praise William McKinley by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 7? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? Jun 05 $1 $0 -36%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on June 7? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 05 $4 −$3 -65%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 8? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Micah Parsons be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 7? Jun 04 $1 $0 -83%
Will Trump praise Karoline Leavitt by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in May? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Al Ahly win Egypt Premier League? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on June 7? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 67% −$2
other 23% +$5
crypto 5% −$5
sports 3% +$11
economics 2% $0
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Detroit Lions in 2026-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Philadelphia Eagles next? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Philadelphia Eagles next? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4%? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Kiki Rice win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Kiki Rice win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Kiki Rice win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.6% and 1.8%? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Rudy Moise be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Rudy Moise be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Rudy Moise be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Trump Airport become law this year? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 15h
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 Action of the Year? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 Action of the Year? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will George Pickens play for Arizona Cardinals in 2026-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will George Pickens play for Arizona Cardinals in 2026-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will George Pickens play for Arizona Cardinals in 2026-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will George Pickens play for Arizona Cardinals in 2026-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Los Angeles Chargers next? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 32h
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Los Angeles Chargers next? BUY No 69¢ $1 44h
Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-22? SELL No 93¢ $3 2d
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Cleveland Browns in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Philadelphia Eagles in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for New York Giants in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +600.0% +533.3% 33% 33% -97.1%
≤30d 29 -24.1% -31.3% 3% 3% -94.6%
≤90d 29 -24.1% -31.3% 3% 3% -94.6%
all 29 -24.1% -31.3% 3% 3% -94.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 3% -94.6%
10% -37.9% 3% -95.1%
15% -43.9% 3% -95.6%
20% -49.4% 3% -96.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.56 · official $65.12 · 485 history records