Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2494…9405 crypto 314 markets active 1d ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$275 (-8%) realized −$271 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%99W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$122
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$153
sports 28% +$114
finance 12% −$201
other 8% −$133
politics 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -9.1% -17.8% 12% 12% -19.1%
≤30d 178 +1.0% -8.6% 13% 13% -11.9%
≤90d 186 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 14% -19.8%
all 313 +0.2% -9.4% 32% 27% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 27% -19.3%
10% -18.0% 25% -27.0%
15% -25.9% 23% -34.1%
20% -33.2% 21% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$271
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses99 / 214
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)313 / 314
History coverage249d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 199 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$33 +650%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 32h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 32h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 32h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $5 32h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $5 32h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 32h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 32h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $10 32h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 32h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 32h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 32h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 32h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 33h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 33h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $4 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.42 · official $6.42 (match) · 618 history records