Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
24 0x2496…ffdc other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$143 (+9%) realized +$168 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$48
14 days+$31
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$13
sports 29% +$131
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 50% +31.3%
≤30d 28 +49.8% +35.5% 32% 32% +0.2%
≤90d 28 +49.8% +35.5% 32% 32% +0.2%
all 28 +49.8% +35.5% 32% 32% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.5% 32% +0.2%
10% +22.6% 29% -9.4%
15% +10.7% 29% -18.2%
20% -0.1% 29% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +107% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$22 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$465
Realized+$168
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage17d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $80 $66 −$14 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$80 +388%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$46 +223%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$173 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 6d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $103 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 10d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $32 11d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $82 12d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $116 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 12d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 13d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 13d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 13d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 13d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 13d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 13d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $182 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.83 · official $464.66 (match) · 59 history records