Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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24 0x249a…f923 sports 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%54W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$38
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$255
other 8% −$193
crypto 2% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.4% -28.9% 36% 36% -17.3%
≤30d 121 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 44% -9.3%
≤90d 121 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 44% -9.3%
all 121 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 44% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 44% -9.3%
10% -27.0% 44% -17.9%
15% -34.1% 44% -25.9%
20% -40.6% 43% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$19 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses54 / 67
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 128
History coverage22d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers 43¢ 56¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $20 +$33 +165%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $21 +$18 +85%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $20 +$21 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Nursulton Ruziboev win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $16 −$16 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Quinn vs Fokina Jun 27 $10 +$11 +109%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$18 +89%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $15 +$11 +75%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $15 +$16 +105%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$52 +103%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $29 +$19 +64%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $17 +$18 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $24 +$29 +119%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $20 +$27 +132%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $24 +$21 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $19 +$23 +118%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $20 +$26 +128%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $30 +$32 +106%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $20 +$18 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $19 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $27 1h
Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 2h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main SELL Matheus Camilo 100¢ $53 2h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Matheus Camilo 37¢ $20 2h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY 53¢ $21 3h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, SELL Abus Magomedov 100¢ $41 3h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 48¢ $20 4h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Eric Nolan 39¢ $10 4h
Will Nursulton Ruziboev win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 67¢ $16 5h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 49¢ $5 5h
Set 1 Winner: Quinn vs Fokina SELL Fokina 100¢ $21 5h
Set 1 Winner: Quinn vs Fokina BUY Fokina 47¢ $10 6h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 44¢ $10 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Austria vs. Jordan: Bot BUY 22¢ $20 10d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $18 10d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $38 10d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 53¢ $17 11d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 11d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 96¢ $27 11d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $20 11d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $31 11d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $15 11d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 39¢ $14 11d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $15 11d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 46¢ $15 11d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $15 11d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $66 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.43 · official $58.43 (match) · 214 history records