Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x249c…d236 crypto 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$820 (+5%) realized +$820 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate73%83W / 31L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$468
14 days+$466
30 days+$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$554
sports 4% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -3.8% -12.9% 74% 52% -5.2%
≤30d 114 -5.0% -14.1% 73% 51% -5.3%
≤90d 114 -5.0% -14.1% 73% 51% -5.3%
all 114 -5.0% -14.1% 73% 51% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 51% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 34% -14.3%
15% -29.8% 18% -22.6%
20% -36.7% 7% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$65 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$820
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses83 / 31
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage9d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$25 +25%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$21 +103%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $205 +$30 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $153 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$14 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$99 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$38 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$101 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$18 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $120 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $136 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $120 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $113 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $108 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $129 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $104 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $116 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $141 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $101 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $119 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $118 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $103 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 281 history records