Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x249c…9edf sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-16%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%25W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$54
sports 24% −$7
tech 8% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.0% -11.4% 60% 60% -40.4%
≤30d 5 -2.0% -11.4% 60% 60% -40.4%
≤90d 50 -25.2% -32.3% 50% 36% -34.1%
all 50 -25.2% -32.3% 50% 36% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 36% -34.1%
10% -38.8% 34% -40.4%
15% -44.7% 30% -46.2%
20% -50.1% 24% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses25 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage79d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $20 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 2 Brentford FC? Apr 30 $1 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 1 - 1 Brentford FC? Apr 30 $1 $0 +11%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 27 $1 $0 +26%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Apr 27 $1 −$1 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $1 +$1 +83%
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers Apr 26 $1 +$1 +86%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 26 $2 +$2 +76%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Madrid Open: Laura Siegemund vs Jasmine Paolini Apr 25 $1 $0 +46%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $1 +$1 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Apr 25 $1 +$1 +83%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse Apr 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Heroic (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Madrid Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Apr 23 $2 −$1 -43%
Madrid Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Sebastian Ofner Apr 23 $1 +$1 +73%
Madrid Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Solana Sierra Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Apr 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Marta Kostyuk vs Veronika Podrez Apr 19 $1 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $2 +$1 +48%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 19 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 19 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres Apr 18 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 16 $1 $0 +10%
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Apr 16 $1 +$1 +119%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 16 $5 $0 +6%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 16 $3 +$3 +90%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Wuning: Tom Paris vs Ilia Simakin Apr 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Voca (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 05 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 60¢ $1 55d
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 1 - 1 Brentford FC? BUY No 90¢ $1 55d
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 2 Brentford FC? BUY No 93¢ $1 55d
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime $1 55d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 79¢ $1 56d
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY San Diego Padres 63¢ $1 56d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 45¢ $1 56d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 56¢ $2 57d
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 53¢ $1 57d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 54¢ $1 57d
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 49¢ $1 58d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Heroic (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY BIG 75¢ $1 58d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $1 58d
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $1 59d
Madrid Open: Laura Siegemund vs Jasmine Paolini BUY Jasmine Paolini 68¢ $1 59d
Madrid Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 87¢ $1 60d
Madrid Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 12¢ $1 60d
Madrid Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Solana Sierra BUY Dayana Yastremska 92¢ $1 60d
Madrid Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 57¢ $1 60d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes $1 61d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Stefano Travaglia $1 62d
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Detroit Tigers $1 62d
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-20? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 62d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 79¢ $4 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.65 · official $30.65 (match) · 81 history records