Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x24a4…25bd crypto 1373 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$391 (+0%) realized +$391 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%1309W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$289
14 days+$322
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$226
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 1% -8.2%
≤30d 682 -0.4% -9.8% 97% 1% -9.6%
≤90d 1373 -2.3% -11.6% 95% 2% -9.4%
all 1373 -2.3% -11.6% 95% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 2% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 1% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$38 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$391
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1309 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1373 / 1373
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$122
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1373 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $82 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $89 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $164 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $175 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $176 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $87 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $175 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $173 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $87 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $87 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $87 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $174 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $87 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $87 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $87 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $174 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $87 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $85 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $86 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $86 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $86 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $172 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $159 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $85 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $79 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $256 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $170 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $170 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $81 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $250 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $155 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $84 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $74 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $83 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $166 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $83 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $164 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $165 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $165 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $82 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $89 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $88 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $175 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $88 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $176 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $87 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $175 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $88 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $173 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $87 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $87 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $87 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $124 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $87 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $87 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $87 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $174 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $87 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $85 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $86 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $86 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $86 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $172 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $159 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $85 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $79 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records