Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
24 0x24a5…50f0 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,130 (-62%) realized −$1,756 · open −$374
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$2,132
sports 26% −$374
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 12 -49.4% -54.2% 25% 25% -85.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.2% 25% -85.2%
10% -58.6% 25% -86.7%
15% -62.6% 25% -87.9%
20% -66.3% 25% -89.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$258 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$515
Realized−$1,756
Unrealized−$374
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage117d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Procyon Gaming 35¢ 26¢ $694 $515 −$179 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 1 Winner Procyon Gaming 33¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 11 $221 −$217 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 11 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 11 $124 +$114 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 11 $40 −$18 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 11 $13 +$9 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 11 $70 +$63 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 11 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 11 $424 −$424 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 11 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 04 $391 −$391 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 04 $399 −$399 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY Procyon Gaming 26¢ $223 13m
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Procyon Gaming 33¢ $199 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY Procyon Gaming 41¢ $70 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY Procyon Gaming 43¢ $173 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY Procyon Gaming 42¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY Procyon Gaming 42¢ $176 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY Procyon Gaming 42¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $201 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $15 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $238 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $124 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $22 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $40 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $22 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $13 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $133 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $70 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $424 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $450 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $100 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $300 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $391 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $399 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $514.92 · official $475.33 · 33 history records