Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x24a5…ab7d
crypto · 1164 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$152 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$66 · open −$165
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$371
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses676 / 432
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions55
Markets (closed)1108 / 1164
History coverage148d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 55 History 1108 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$193
14 days+$137
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 82¢ 29¢ $181 $63 −$118 (-65%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $14 $21 +$8 (+56%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? No 76¢ 78¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? No 65¢ 60¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? No 70¢ 64¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 68¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 14¢ 16¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 51¢ 49¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 35¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 81¢ 97¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 57¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+68%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 44¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+40%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 28¢ 40¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+46%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 65¢ 63¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-44%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 42¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 56¢ 38¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-31%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 50¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+36%)
Haiti elections delayed again? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 48¢ 57¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 47¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? No 68¢ 57¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$1 -11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $16 +$7 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1 +$1 +81%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $18 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$13 +301%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6 +$6 +93%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $16 −$12 -74%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $12 +$8 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$2 +109%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 +$5 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +86%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $1 +$1 +75%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $31 +$12 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $43 +$20 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +79%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$2 +105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$3 +54%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 −$1 -24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $12 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 63% −$152
sports 25% +$180
other 6% −$3
politics 5% −$123
world 2% −$2
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $0 2m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 47¢ $5 4m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $0 4m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $0 4m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 26¢ $0 4m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $0 5m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 26¢ $0 5m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 27¢ $0 6m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $4 7m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 27¢ $0 8m
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 12m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 29¢ $0 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 69¢ $15 14m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 33¢ $1 18m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1 30m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 45m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $9 46m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 46m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 46m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 46m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 47m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 47m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $2 47m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $5 47m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 49m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $12 51m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $2 52m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $3 54m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 14¢ $7 55m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $23 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 -6.3% -15.2% 54% 47% +1.0%
≤30d 631 -1.7% -11.1% 68% 45% -5.6%
≤90d 631 -1.7% -11.1% 68% 45% -5.6%
all 1108 -2.2% -11.5% 61% 48% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 48% -8.5%
10% -20.0% 40% -17.3%
15% -27.7% 34% -25.2%
20% -34.8% 31% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.27 · official $371.30 (match) · 3500 history records