Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
24 0x24a8…45b3 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$920 (-1%) realized −$920 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 97L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$956per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$14
14 days+$82
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,376
politics 32% −$47
sports 8% +$481
economics 5% −$5
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 48 +7.8% -2.4% 17% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 112 +6.4% -3.7% 13% 12% -10.3%
all 112 +6.4% -3.7% 13% 12% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 12% -10.3%
10% -13.0% 10% -18.9%
15% -21.4% 9% -26.7%
20% -29.1% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$1,348) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$16 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$920
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage87d
Avg bet$956
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $358 $358 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,667 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,274 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,540 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,219 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,735 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $713 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $817 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $67 +$106 +158%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $60 +$63 +105%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,157 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $246 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $357 +$1 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $549 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $517 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $375 −$1 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 24 $67 +$22 +32%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,524 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $732 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $780 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $48 +$22 +46%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $58 +$52 +90%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $221 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $239 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $274 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $21 +$11 +50%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $286 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $302 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $616 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $617 2h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $646 4h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $647 5h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $665 5h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $666 9h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $501 30h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $501 33h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $520 47h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $521 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $523 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $524 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $681 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $682 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $358 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $910 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $912 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $772 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $773 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $925 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $927 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $887 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $889 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $712 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $713 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $752 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $753 9d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $796 10d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $798 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $816 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.89 · official $357.89 (match) · 415 history records