Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x24a9…c44a
sports · 54 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$460
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions43
Markets (closed)11 / 54
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 43 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 71¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 77¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 60¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 46¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 94¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 40¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 91¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$26 +172%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 +$19 +73%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% −$30
other 40% +$20
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $6 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $6 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $15 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $6 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $8 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $16 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $15 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $5 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $15 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $15 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 25h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 45h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $10 45h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $10 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -26.8% -33.8% 27% 27% -15.3%
≤30d 11 -26.8% -33.8% 27% 27% -15.3%
≤90d 11 -26.8% -33.8% 27% 27% -15.3%
all 11 -26.8% -33.8% 27% 27% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.8% 27% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -40.1% 27% -23.4%
15% -45.9% 27% -30.8%
20% -51.2% 27% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.96 · official $459.96 (match) · 59 history records