Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

24 0x24ae…d35b sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$89 (-14%) realized −$141 · open +$52

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate40%10W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day38.1pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit89%portable

Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-18.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	-9.8%	-18.4%	40%	36%	-17.9%
≤30d	25	-9.8%	-18.4%	40%	36%	-17.9%
≤90d	25	-9.8%	-18.4%	40%	36%	-17.9%
all	25	-9.8%	-18.4%	40%	36%	-17.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover38.1 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-18.4%	36%	-17.9%
10% ← realistic here	-26.2%	32%	-25.8%
15%	-33.3%	28%	-32.9%
20%	-39.9%	24%	-39.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -18% → late -2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.82 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$118

Realized−$141

Unrealized+$52

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses10 / 15

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions3

Markets (closed)25 / 28

History coverage1d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day38.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Over	46¢	100¢	$46	$100	+$54 (+117%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Over	25¢	70¢	$6	$18	+$11 (+180%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Over	27¢	0¢	$13	$0	−$13 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$10	$0	-3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Corners	Jun 20	$11	−$10	-91%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$12	+$18	+150%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$35	+$65	+186%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$41	+$31	+78%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$16	−$8	-52%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$15	−$6	-43%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$20	−$20	-98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$25	−$16	-63%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$10	−$7	-64%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$31	+$53	+172%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?	Jun 19	$72	−$70	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$31	−$30	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$31	−$30	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$31	−$30	-98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$7	+$3	+34%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$9	+$11	+124%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$19	+$1	+5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$20	+$7	+36%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$25	+$5	+20%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 18	$20	+$34	+165%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	46¢	$1	42m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	46¢	$2	42m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	46¢	$6	42m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	46¢	$25	43m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	46¢	$2	43m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	46¢	$9	43m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay?	SELL Yes	5¢	$10	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	25¢	$6	1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Corners	SELL Over	2¢	$1	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	27¢	$13	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Corners	BUY Over	22¢	$11	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	27¢	$0	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	62¢	$62	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	33¢	$33	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	35¢	$33	6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	35¢	$2	6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	40¢	$6	6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	40¢	$3	7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	40¢	$3	7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$72	8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	5¢	$0	8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	18¢	$7	8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	31¢	$16	8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	29¢	$9	8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	50¢	$15	8h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	39¢	$20	9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	56¢	$20	9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	55¢	$20	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.60 · official $117.60 (match) · 62 history records