Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24b1…2e4e world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-5%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$12
other 17% −$14
politics 8% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -2.8% -12.1% 20% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 9 -3.1% -12.3% 22% 0% -12.7%
all 27 -3.9% -13.1% 30% 0% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -14.5%
10% -21.4% 0% -22.7%
15% -29.0% 0% -30.2%
20% -36.0% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage266d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $35 −$2 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $34 −$3 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $18 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $44 −$6 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $8 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Dec 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $3 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 07 $8 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $2 $0 +10%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $13 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 05 $16 −$14 -91%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $12 $0 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 01 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $30 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $30 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $25 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $5 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $30 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 57¢ $6 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 57¢ $27 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $35 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 67¢ $29 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 67¢ $3 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $34 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 30d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $31 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 63¢ $11 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 63¢ $18 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 63¢ $10 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 64¢ $40 31d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $8 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.12 · official $33.12 (match) · 73 history records