Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:09:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24b1…7943 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$119 (+8%) realized +$95 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$164
other 21% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -41.9% -47.4% 33% 33% -22.2%
≤30d 18 -41.9% -47.4% 33% 33% -22.2%
≤90d 18 -41.9% -47.4% 33% 33% -22.2%
all 18 -41.9% -47.4% 33% 33% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.4% 33% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -52.5% 28% -29.7%
15% -57.1% 22% -36.4%
20% -61.3% 11% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$50 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 77¢ $104 $129 +$25 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $104 +$134 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$23 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $108 +$44 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $129 +$46 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$186 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $96 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.47 · official $328.47 (match) · 39 history records