Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24b4…1ab5 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$2
other 17% −$1
politics 10% $0
crypto 8% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 3% +$1
weather 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 60% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 60% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -3.9% -13.0% 45% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage398d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $17 −$4 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $22 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $37 +$3 +8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $38 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $21 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $19 $0 -2%
Starmer out before July? Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? May 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 22 $2 $0 -10%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 19 $2 $0 -9%
Will 'The Brave' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 19 $21 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 18? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $41 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $38 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $37 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $28 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 20h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $20 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $2 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 29¢ $22 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $40 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 73¢ $22 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $15 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $38 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $15 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $18 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $2 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $32 28d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 183d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY No 94¢ $1 362d
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? SELL No 94¢ $19 377d
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 96¢ $19 378d
Starmer out before July? SELL No 98¢ $19 378d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records