Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24b9…bcb1 crypto 1221 markets active 2h ago coverage 383d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 382d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,395 (-22%) realized −$24,395 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%462W / 759L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$244
7 days−$546
14 days−$3,823
30 days−$3,094
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$11,790
sports 22% −$4,363
other 0% −$242
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +42.7% +29.1% 33% 29% -22.4%
≤30d 235 +1.9% -7.8% 30% 28% -31.6%
≤90d 638 -33.2% -39.6% 26% 22% -43.7%
all 1221 -17.4% -25.2% 38% 31% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 31% -23.2%
10% -32.4% 26% -30.5%
15% -38.9% 20% -37.2%
20% -44.9% 16% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$51 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24,395
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses462 / 759
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1221 / 1221
History coverage383d ⚠
Avg bet$91
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1221 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$131 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -60%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$10 +23%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $51 +$95 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $140 +$36 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $173 −$53 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $40 −$36 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$48 +897%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $12 −$10 -83%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $16 +$30 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $74 +$22 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $181 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $83 −$24 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $203 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $194 −$184 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $147 −$140 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $137 +$113 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $171 +$247 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$98 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $184 −$8 -4%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $158 +$35 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $92 −$87 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $127 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $230 +$73 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 12¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 2¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 5¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 11h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 11h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 13h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 13¢ $14 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records