Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24bb…dbaa weather 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$688 (-17%) realized −$628 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%68W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$27
14 days+$86
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% −$527
sports 19% −$51
crypto 12% −$145
other 3% −$33
culture 0% −$6
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +11.4% +0.8% 50% 46% -14.8%
≤30d 73 +56.2% +41.3% 48% 45% -1.2%
≤90d 161 +12.9% +2.2% 42% 40% -26.7%
all 161 +12.9% +2.2% 42% 40% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 40% -26.7%
10% -7.6% 36% -33.7%
15% -16.5% 31% -40.1%
20% -24.7% 27% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$628
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses68 / 93
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions13
Markets (closed)161 / 181
History coverage70d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Yes 49¢ 20¢ $78 $33 −$45 (-58%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+23%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $27 $14 −$13 (-46%)
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+124%)
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $5 $9 +$3 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Yes 30¢ 48¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+60%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $8 $1 −$8 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 22 $12 −$9 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $16 +$19 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $13 +$11 +79%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 +$8 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $82 +$27 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $128 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$12 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$30 +566%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $8 −$2 -30%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$25 +170%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$95 +1770%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $26 +$24 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 −$15 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$24 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $62 −$24 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$3 +28%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -63%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $28 +$25 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $101 −$28 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $20 +$18 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $18 −$13 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $22 +$42 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$39 +354%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 50¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 54¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 41¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 42¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Algeria (-1.5) AND Spread: England BUY 6¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 66¢ $34 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 88¢ $31 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 88¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.49 · official $126.50 (match) · 858 history records