Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x24bf…b006 sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,775 (+7%) realized +$1,777 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%72W / 49L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,201
7 days+$1,586
14 days+$2,216
30 days+$2,612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$569
other 35% +$650
world 5% +$1,445
crypto 0% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +59.2% +44.1% 48% 48% +9.4%
≤30d 90 +13.7% +2.8% 59% 58% +3.0%
≤90d 121 +8.2% -2.1% 60% 57% -4.0%
all 121 +8.2% -2.1% 60% 57% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 57% -4.0%
10% -11.4% 41% -13.2%
15% -20.0% 34% -21.5%
20% -27.8% 22% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$180 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$1,777
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses72 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage50d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $174 $172 −$2 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $47 −$47 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,277 −$1,251 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,146 +$3,524 +307%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,102 −$1,029 -93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $373 −$366 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $350 −$342 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,321 +$1,445 +109%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 +$82 +180%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $64 +$631 +982%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $170 −$168 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $68 +$58 +86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 +$59 +124%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $171 +$47 +27%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$33 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$5 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 +$51 +388%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$11 +226%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 13 $68 −$67 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $73 +$80 +109%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $102 +$28 +27%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $30 −$20 -67%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $193 +$115 +60%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $28 −$28 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12 +$9 +79%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $100 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $65 +$9 +14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 09 $64 −$63 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 09 $64 −$63 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $328 +$124 +38%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $62 +$29 +46%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $167 +$60 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 09 $66 −$65 -99%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs The Otter Side (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swi Jun 08 $253 +$43 +17%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu Jun 08 $65 +$26 +40%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $168 +$70 +42%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 07 $334 +$117 +35%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi Jun 07 $64 +$45 +70%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 07 $167 +$29 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $178 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 17h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $1,013 18h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $19 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $29 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $25 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $1,252 41h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $1,146 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 2¢ $73 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $600 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $210 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $11 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $501 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $350 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $153 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1,321 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $170 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $64 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $41 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $63 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $68 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $48 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 52¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 52¢ $65 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $3 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.34 · official $173.37 (match) · 275 history records