Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24c1…54b0 sports 126 markets active 2d ago coverage 355d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$49,790 (+43%) realized +$49,790 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%39W / 87L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$918per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1,921est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72,181
7 days+$72,181
14 days+$72,181
30 days+$61,768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$57,552
crypto 11% −$1,594
politics 7% −$6,328
world 5% −$229
other 5% −$1,798
economics 0% +$35
finance 0% +$54
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +174.8% +148.6% 100% 100% +144.6%
≤30d 43 -14.7% -22.8% 30% 30% +68.8%
≤90d 55 -2.1% -11.5% 38% 38% +65.0%
all 126 -21.5% -29.0% 31% 27% +27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 27% +27.9%
10% -35.8% 25% +15.6%
15% -42.0% 22% +4.5%
20% -47.7% 20% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +41% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$900) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -34% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,225 vs −$454 · ×4.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

355d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49,790
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses39 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$1,921
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage355d
Avg bet$918
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $34,516 +$57,909 +168%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7,852 +$14,272 +182%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $52 −$51 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,020 −$46 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 29 $1,240 +$263 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 29 $106 −$66 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 28 $103 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 28 $105 +$50 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 28 $222 −$15 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 25 $930 −$900 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 25 $507 +$472 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 25 $1,229 −$1,200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 25 $415 −$415 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 25 $1,118 −$1,084 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 25 $1,034 +$731 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 25 $2,304 +$728 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 25 $828 −$399 -48%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 N May 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 25 $288 −$282 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 25 $313 −$313 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 25 $558 −$286 -51%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $410 −$410 -100%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 N May 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? May 25 $256 −$256 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 25 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 25 $2,174 −$832 -38%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 25 $2,132 −$2,132 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $1,288 −$1,250 -97%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $1,397 −$1,397 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $652 −$652 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $741 −$741 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 25 $104 +$101 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 25 $619 +$464 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 25 $309 +$214 +69%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 24 $587 +$1,413 +240%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $3,426 −$1,608 -47%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $748 +$803 +107%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $95 +$676 +711%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB May 11 $531 +$313 +59%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Finals in the 20 May 11 $337 −$16 -5%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $204 +$351 +172%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 10 $1,254 −$1,222 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 04 $300 +$459 +153%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $881 +$736 +84%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $132 +$91 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $5,921 37h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 39h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $17 39h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $340 39h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,314 39h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $428 39h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $7,952 40h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $699 40h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $7,154 40h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $7,952 40h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $9,288 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 52¢ $729 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 52¢ $11,654 9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $52 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $12,442 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 33¢ $178 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 33¢ $662 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 33¢ $116 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 33¢ $19 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 32¢ $510 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 36¢ $510 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 29¢ $120 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $534 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $96 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $494 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $654 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1585 history records