Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24c7…77c4 sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (176 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$676 (-1%) realized −$676 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%39W / 132L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$907per market
Trades / day175.8pace
Fees−$782est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$11,301
other 42% −$578
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (176 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -47.3% -52.4% 15% 14% -58.3%
≤30d 171 -32.9% -39.3% 23% 22% -45.9%
≤90d 171 -32.9% -39.3% 23% 22% -45.9%
all 171 -32.9% -39.3% 23% 22% -45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover175.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.3% 22% -45.9%
10% -45.1% 22% -51.1%
15% ← realistic here -50.4% 22% -55.8%
20% -55.2% 18% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$975) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
34.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$885 vs −$649 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$676
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses39 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$782
Open positions0
Markets (closed)171 / 97
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$907
Trades / day175.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 171 Trades
no open positions (128 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,044 −$1,044 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5) Jun 20 $569 −$245 -43%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 20 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Gentle Mates win PGL Astana 2026? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? Jun 20 $547 −$547 -100%
Will The MongolZ win PGL Astana 2026? Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? Jun 20 $515 −$515 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 20 $380 −$380 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 20 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Aurora win PGL Astana 2026? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will FURIA win PGL Astana 2026? Jun 20 $114 −$114 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek Jun 20 $166 −$166 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elise Mertens vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $89 +$134 +150%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $240 −$240 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $925 −$925 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 20 $900 −$900 -100%
Map Handicap: TdU (-1.5) vs Alter Ego (+1.5) Jun 20 $374 −$374 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo Jun 20 $540 −$540 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Jun 20 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 20 $1,170 −$1,170 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 20 $185 −$185 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $165 −$165 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 20 $900 −$900 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 20 $437 −$437 -100%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? Jun 20 $1,184 −$1,272 -107%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Euro Jun 20 $330 −$330 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $240 −$240 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 20 $291 −$291 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $229 −$333 -145%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 20 $480 −$480 -100%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,070 −$1,070 -100%
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026? Jun 20 $121 −$121 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $796 −$796 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,571 −$1,571 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,703 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,299 5h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $119 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $8 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $7 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $1 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $12 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $29 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $43 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $0 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $72 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $74 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $147 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $7 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $118 11h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $130 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 19¢ $307 12h
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $1,552 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $324 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $4 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $6 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $138 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $61 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $57 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $502 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $6 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $101 15h
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $582 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records