Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x24c8…23e1
other · 73 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,666,470 +41%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45,499 · open −$183,948
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$784,940
Realized−$45,499
Unrealized−$183,948
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions175
Markets (closed)57 / 73
History coverage4d
Avg bet$56,298
Trades / day890.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 175 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45,228
7 days−$45,499
14 days−$45,499
30 days−$45,499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 67¢ $225,000 $300,375 +$75,375 (+34%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 33¢ $225,000 $149,625 −$75,375 (-34%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $58,093 $58,589 +$495 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $34,015 $34,073 +$58 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $28,341 $28,384 +$43 (+0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $27,228 $27,242 +$14 (+0%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $23,596 $23,532 −$64 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2,141 $12,394 +$10,254 (+479%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 78¢ 82¢ $11,203 $11,814 +$610 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $9,767 $9,850 +$83 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $7,250 $7,299 +$50 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 61¢ 98¢ $4,383 $7,027 +$2,645 (+60%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 50¢ $4,564 $6,123 +$1,559 (+34%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 17¢ $1,680 $5,262 +$3,582 (+213%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $3,476 $5,202 +$1,726 (+50%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $4,833 $4,972 +$139 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $471 $4,623 +$4,151 (+881%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $3,663 $4,506 +$843 (+23%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 26¢ 60¢ $1,642 $3,772 +$2,130 (+130%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 82¢ $3,618 $3,685 +$67 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,536 $3,537 +$2 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,286 $3,318 +$32 (+1%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,132 $3,223 +$90 (+3%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 52¢ $2,697 $3,186 +$489 (+18%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1,306 $3,131 +$1,825 (+140%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,805 −$3,805 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Jun 14 $490 −$988 -202%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? Jun 14 $122 +$190 +155%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 14 $392 −$8,795 -2244%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 14 $59 +$1,849 +3125%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 14 $75 +$4,476 +5936%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $11,887 −$2,628 -22%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 14 $198 −$198 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 14 $149 +$5,089 +3420%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 14 $88 +$1,225 +1385%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Jun 14 $431 −$1,553 -361%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 14 $88 +$6,407 +7321%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 14 $965 +$813 +84%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 14 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 14 $45 +$826 +1847%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,805 −$3,805 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$39,106 +39183%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$8,337 +80670%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 14 $5,352 −$7,288 -136%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 14 $173 −$173 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $258 −$258 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 53% −$74,674
other 35% −$178,331
world 5% +$15,633
economics 4% −$26,419
crypto 3% +$581
finance 0% +$2,367
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,245 12m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $498 18m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,667 36m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 40m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,133 46m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2,739 48m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,245 51m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 52m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $0 52m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,735 53m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $249 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $510 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $966 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $31 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $442 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+231.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +265.9% +231.1% 21% 21% -63.1%
≤30d 57 +265.9% +231.1% 21% 21% -63.1%
≤90d 57 +265.9% +231.1% 21% 21% -63.1%
all 57 +265.9% +231.1% 21% 21% -63.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover890.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +231.1% 21% -63.1%
10% +199.4% 21% -66.6%
15% ← realistic here +170.5% 21% -69.9%
20% +144.0% 21% -72.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $784,940.42 · official $784,941.33 (match) · 3500 history records