Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:00:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24ca…5829 crypto 561 markets active 3d ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (324 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,133 (-39%) realized −$4,119 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%223W / 558L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day324.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$514
other 0% −$14
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (324 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 532 -61.5% -65.2% 18% 16% -48.7%
≤30d 781 -35.5% -41.6% 29% 25% -20.0%
≤90d 781 -35.5% -41.6% 29% 25% -20.0%
all 781 -35.5% -41.6% 29% 25% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover324.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.6% 25% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -47.2% 22% -27.7%
15% -52.3% 20% -34.7%
20% -57.0% 15% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -92% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$4,119
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses223 / 558
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions56
Markets (closed)781 / 561
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day324.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 781 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marty Tuley win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 2¢ 17¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+819%)
Will Acción Popular (AP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $60 95¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+133%)
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Johnnie LaRossa win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Aaron Kahng win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will Traian Basescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+36%)
Will Conrad Ukropina win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+145%)
Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes 27¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-72%)
Will Kaitlin Purrington be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will Gian Jones be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will Petr Yan fight Payton Talbott next? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 444 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in the first round of the 20 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -112%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Vladimir Prebilič be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +236%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Vesna – Green Party (Vesna) be part of the next Government of Slo Jun 17 $0 $0 -111%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $34 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.42 · official $10.75 (match) · 3500 history records