Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
24 0x24ca…d89c sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$43 (+13%) realized +$149 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +16.7% +5.5% 50% 50% +23.1%
≤30d 4 +16.7% +5.5% 50% 50% +23.1%
≤90d 4 +16.7% +5.5% 50% 50% +23.1%
all 4 +16.7% +5.5% 50% 50% +23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 50% +23.1%
10% -4.6% 50% +11.3%
15% -13.8% 50% +0.6%
20% -22.2% 50% -9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$13 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$149
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $107 $1 −$106 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $30 −$17 -56%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $41 −$10 -24%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $61 +$43 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $78 +$60 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $13 30m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 45¢ $31 31m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $109 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $41 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $30 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $61 11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY 56¢ $78 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.17 · official $10.51 · 9 history records