Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x24cb…d2bd
sports · 24 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$320 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$347 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$385
Realized+$347
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage15d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 4 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$98
14 days−$117
30 days+$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 68¢ $130 $138 +$8 (+6%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 65¢ 55¢ $155 $130 −$25 (-16%)
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Knicks 55¢ 57¢ $103 $107 +$5 (+5%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-62%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Athletics New York Yankees 54¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 16¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova Coco Gauff 76¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Spurs 52¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 62¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Spurs 52¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, Prelims) Jingnan Xiong 64¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic Belinda Bencic 45¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Naomi Osaka 20¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $135 +$99 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $333 $0 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $49 −$48 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 +$5 +44%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $123 −$122 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $52 −$50 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $90 +$87 +97%
Mirra Andreeva vs. Jil Teichmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 31 $70 +$19 +27%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $60 −$59 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $178 −$16 -9%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $28 −$28 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 31 $16 +$13 +79%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $56 −$55 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $58 +$12 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $290 +$597 +206%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $40 +$8 +19%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $51 −$24 -47%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 29 $76 −$75 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% +$386
other 4% −$70
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 58¢ $12 18m
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $36 19m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $157 43m
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $56 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $56 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $76 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $135 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 78¢ $332 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 77¢ $333 4d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $49 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 62¢ $15 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 8d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $123 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 20¢ $35 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 21¢ $5 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 21¢ $5 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 21¢ $5 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 21¢ $1 12d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $177 13d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $90 13d
Mirra Andreeva vs. Jil Teichmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 100¢ $90 13d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $45 13d
Mirra Andreeva vs. Jil Teichmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 78¢ $70 13d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $15 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic BUY Belinda Bencic 45¢ $25 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic SELL Belinda Bencic 35¢ $156 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic BUY Belinda Bencic 33¢ $153 13d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $28 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +36.6% +23.6% 50% 50% +9.5%
≤30d 20 -19.0% -26.7% 45% 45% +10.7%
≤90d 20 -19.0% -26.7% 45% 45% +10.7%
all 20 -19.0% -26.7% 45% 45% +10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 45% +10.7%
10% -33.7% 30% +0.1%
15% -40.1% 25% -9.6%
20% -46.0% 20% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.94 · official $384.94 (match) · 53 history records