Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:31:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x24cc…9885 crypto 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$443 (+34%) realized +$240 · open +$203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%81W / 90L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$274
14 days+$265
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$282
sports 47% +$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +4.6% -5.4% 46% 42% +17.1%
≤30d 171 +4.1% -5.8% 47% 44% +10.2%
≤90d 171 +4.1% -5.8% 47% 44% +10.2%
all 171 +4.1% -5.8% 47% 44% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 44% +10.2%
10% -14.8% 40% -0.4%
15% -23.0% 37% -10.0%
20% -30.6% 31% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized+$240
Unrealized+$203
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses81 / 90
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)171 / 173
History coverage17d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 10¢ 50¢ $50 $239 +$189 (+377%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 13¢ 50¢ $5 $19 +$14 (+288%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$16 +305%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$76 +711%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$8 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $26 +$55 +215%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $25 +$26 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$5 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +37%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $26 +$55 +214%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$10 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$12 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 5h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $26 12h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $26 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.06 · official $258.06 (match) · 282 history records