trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 48¢ | 48¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 50¢ | 44¢ | $20 | $18 | −$2 (-11%) |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $9 | $9 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? | Yes | 12¢ | 2¢ | $50 | $6 | −$44 (-87%) |
| Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? | Jun 13 | $50 | −$44 | -88% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? | Jun 13 | $100 | −$78 | -78% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Jun 13 | $50 | −$24 | -48% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? | Jun 13 | $50 | −$45 | -89% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 13 | $8 | −$8 | -90% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Jun 04 | $10 | +$1 | +5% |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? | Apr 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | Apr 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? | Apr 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? | Apr 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Apr 08 | $30 | +$170 | +567% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | Apr 07 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | Apr 06 | $9 | +$1 | +13% |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Apr 06 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET | Apr 06 | $70 | −$38 | -54% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 06 | $40 | +$27 | +67% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Apr 06 | $20 | +$4 | +20% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Apr 06 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Apr 06 | $10 | +$4 | +44% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 06 | $19 | −$18 | -97% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -78.6% | -80.7% | 0% | 0% | -78.9% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -64.7% | -68.0% | 17% | 0% | -76.1% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -21.1% | -28.6% | 35% | 25% | -27.6% |
| all | 20 | -21.1% | -28.6% | 35% | 25% | -27.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.6% | 25% | -27.6% |
| 10% | -35.5% | 15% | -34.5% |
| 15% | -41.7% | 15% | -40.8% |
| 20% | -47.4% | 10% | -46.6% |