Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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24 0x24d3…30ab sports 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,260 (-7%) realized −$17,462 · open +$202
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate54%47W / 40L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,756per market
Trades / day52.7pace
Fees−$2,586est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$919
30 days+$3,073
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$14,543
tech 0% −$72
crypto 0% +$29
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 28 +7.5% -2.7% 79% 25% -4.5%
≤90d 87 -8.8% -17.5% 54% 29% -15.0%
all 87 -8.8% -17.5% 54% 29% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 29% -15.0%
10% -25.4% 15% -23.2%
15% ← realistic here -32.6% 9% -30.6%
20% -39.2% 3% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$3,975) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
25.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$428 vs −$872 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$2,596
Realized−$17,462
Unrealized+$202
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses47 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,586
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$2,756
Trades / day52.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner T1 92¢ 100¢ $1,789 $1,944 +$155 (+9%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner T1 93¢ 100¢ $605 $652 +$46 (+8%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $98 +$1 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4,629 +$918 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $731 −$1 -0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,119 +$544 +26%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,668 −$159 -4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $590 +$72 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $47 +$30 +63%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $986 −$85 -9%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $271 +$7 +3%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 05 $39 +$4 +9%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $188 +$32 +17%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $5,501 +$244 +4%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $1,846 +$33 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $9,565 +$1,021 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $3,401 +$101 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main May 30 $1,658 +$20 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $2,797 +$254 +9%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $2,155 +$19 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $557 −$118 -21%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 30 $112 +$6 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $514 +$36 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $8,917 +$144 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $8 +$4 +50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $348 −$13 -4%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $2,128 −$205 -10%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 29 $1,787 +$136 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $20 $0 +1%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $919 +$30 +3%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner May 24 $1 $0 +47%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner May 23 $398 −$84 -21%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner May 23 $1,760 −$25 -1%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 23 $516 −$3 -1%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 4 Winner May 23 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 21 $14,740 −$5,698 -39%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 21 $2,361 −$1,115 -47%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 21 $5,728 −$5,728 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $2,298 −$317 -14%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner May 16 $7,750 +$1,342 +17%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $395 +$4 +1%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $1,309 +$305 +23%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner May 16 $3,637 +$635 +18%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 15 $6,131 −$3,001 -49%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 15 $5,628 +$201 +4%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner May 15 $6,873 +$103 +2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 15 $9,014 +$2,226 +25%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $5,546 +$2,518 +45%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $2,844 +$322 +11%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $9,244 −$7 -0%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 14 $3,225 −$115 -4%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $4,562 +$3,310 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 20¢ $60 4m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ $54 4m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 15¢ $30 7m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 15¢ $45 7m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 14¢ $42 7m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 14¢ $28 7m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 14¢ $0 7m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 14¢ $72 7m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $13 7m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $45 7m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $3 7m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $4 7m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 97¢ $291 58m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 90¢ $86 59m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 90¢ $90 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 90¢ $90 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $273 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $267 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $37 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 88¢ $264 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 87¢ $261 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $256 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $256 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 99¢ $99 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 99¢ $297 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 99¢ $297 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $124 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $140 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $147 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,595.50 · official $2,595.48 (match) · 3500 history records