Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
24 0x24d4…4e1d sports 430 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,617 (-14%) realized −$27,064 · open +$447
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%193W / 234L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2,485est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$228
7 days−$9,560
14 days−$14,463
30 days−$25,924
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$26,287
world 1% −$1,250
other 0% +$362
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 46% -31.1%
≤30d 190 -14.8% -22.9% 43% 43% -29.7%
≤90d 367 -10.0% -18.6% 44% 43% -23.7%
all 427 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 43% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 43% -23.1%
10% -24.7% 43% -30.5%
15% -31.9% 42% -37.2%
20% -38.6% 36% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$562) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$382 vs −$433 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$2,247
Realized−$27,064
Unrealized+$447
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses193 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$2,485
Open positions3
Markets (closed)427 / 430
History coverage136d
Avg bet$436
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 427 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 48¢ $900 $891 −$9 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 92¢ $400 $851 +$451 (+113%)
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Atlanta Dream 53¢ 54¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 217 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,216 +$925 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 18 $157 −$37 -24%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-9.5) Jun 18 $608 +$526 +86%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $30 +$6 +21%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5 Jun 18 $741 +$664 +90%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 18 $406 +$445 +110%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $984 −$965 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) Jun 17 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $406 +$463 +114%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $556 +$317 +57%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 Jun 17 $1,320 −$1,300 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $407 +$561 +138%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $565 +$249 +44%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $555 +$241 +43%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $507 +$473 +93%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) Jun 17 $473 −$465 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,085 −$1,070 -99%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 Jun 17 $507 +$436 +86%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $1,421 +$1,376 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,368 +$1,084 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $784 −$770 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $283 −$280 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,267 −$1,250 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $496 −$489 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $319 −$315 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,621 −$1,600 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,114 −$1,100 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $203 +$231 +114%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $89 +$201 +226%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $203 +$203 +100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,517 +$707 +47%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$153 +250%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $127 +$118 +93%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $817 −$800 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+2.5) Jun 14 $505 −$500 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $914 −$900 -98%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $720 −$710 -99%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Team Heretics Academy (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $406 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $508 2h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 53¢ $507 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $407 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $2,141 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $608 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $608 6h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 35¢ $505 17h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $479 17h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-9.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 53¢ $608 20h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 20h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 82¢ $30 20h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 52¢ $710 20h
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) BUY New York Liberty 52¢ $507 20h
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) BUY New York Liberty 52¢ $507 21h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) BUY Washington Mystics 47¢ $406 28h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 50¢ $710 28h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 50¢ $609 28h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $406 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $203 28h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY Bebop 65¢ $157 29h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $968 29h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $814 29h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $407 32h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $796 32h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $980 33h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $473 33h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $556 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,246.70 · official $2,246.70 (match) · 789 history records