Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
24 0x24d5…cf40 sports 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,484 (-5%) realized −$1,490 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%177W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$388
30 days−$462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$175
other 30% −$1,261
crypto 0% −$47
economics 0% −$11
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 57 +0.7% -8.9% 88% 32% -14.1%
≤90d 132 -5.0% -14.1% 78% 41% -14.2%
all 248 -8.9% -17.6% 71% 43% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 43% -13.1%
10% -25.5% 19% -21.4%
15% -32.7% 8% -29.0%
20% -39.3% 5% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$72 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized−$1,490
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses177 / 71
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions8
Markets (closed)248 / 256
History coverage343d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $98 $108 +$10 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-25%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $5 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $6 +$2 (+61%)
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $250 −$248 -99%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $200 +$17 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $200 +$17 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $200 +$17 +8%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $150 +$14 +10%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 10 $140 +$6 +4%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $121 +$24 +20%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $100 +$7 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $95 +$14 +14%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $201 −$105 -52%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $101 +$19 +19%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $151 +$26 +17%
Spread: Ōita Trinita (-1.5) Jun 07 $100 +$11 +11%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $100 +$10 +10%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $100 +$12 +12%
Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $100 +$10 +10%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Kuwait win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $90 +$21 +23%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $65 +$19 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $401 −$400 -100%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $301 +$32 +10%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $200 −$111 -55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $27 −$27 -99%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $401 +$21 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $201 +$19 +10%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $400 +$14 +4%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $300 +$15 +5%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $150 +$7 +4%
Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5) Jun 01 $30 +$6 +19%
Switzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $102 +$20 +20%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 3.5 May 31 $301 +$18 +6%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 4.5 May 31 $130 +$12 +10%
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $301 +$18 +6%
Thespa Gunma vs. FC Gifu: O/U 5.5 May 31 $100 +$4 +4%
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Gainare Tottori: O/U 4.5 May 31 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $116 −$47 -41%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 30 $300 +$12 +4%
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) May 30 $100 +$8 +8%
Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $300 +$12 +4%
Andorra vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 May 29 $201 +$19 +10%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 28 $51 +$2 +3%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $50 +$15 +29%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 May 27 $150 +$13 +8%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 26 $50 +$23 +46%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-2.5) May 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $98 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $201 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $250 8d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 93¢ $200 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $200 9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $200 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $200 10d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $150 11d
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Senegal 96¢ $140 11d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $121 12d
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $105 12d
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $100 12d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $107 12d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 93¢ $100 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $95 13d
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 43¢ $96 13d
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $201 13d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 98¢ $119 13d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 14d
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $151 14d
Spread: Ōita Trinita (-1.5) SELL Montedio Yamagata 100¢ $111 14d
Spread: Ōita Trinita (-1.5) BUY Montedio Yamagata 90¢ $100 14d
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 14d
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 15d
Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $110 15d
Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 15d
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $103 15d
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 15d
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.01 · official $346.63 (match) · 520 history records